2026 Week 3
Florida State at Alabama
Saturday, September 19, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC
Bryant-Denny Stadium
Florida State
ACC
- Record
- 1-0
- Rating
- 9.1
- National rank
- 35
- Proj. wins
- 6.4
- Playoff prob.
- 1%
Alabama
SEC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 17.6
- National rank
- 13
- Proj. wins
- 6.9
- Playoff prob.
- 10%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Florida State
13%
Alabama
87%
Alabama 90% CI: 82% – 90% Δ rating 8.5
Alabama is the model's favorite at 87%. Florida State has a 13% path. Home-field adjustment of +6.5 rating points baked in for Alabama — venue-specific learned value (n=59 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Florida State offense
34 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Alabama offense
37 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 19, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC
- Venue
- Bryant-Denny Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No