Conference game
Arkansas at Texas
Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 12:00 AM EST
GIE win probability
Arkansas 4% Underdog
Texas 96% Favorite
Texas is the model's favorite at 96%. Arkansas has a 4% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.4 rating points baked in for Texas — venue-specific learned value (n=62 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Arkansas offense
32 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Texas offense
Higher fit 47 / 100 Style-neutral matchup