Conference game
Iowa State at Baylor
Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 12:00 PM EST
GIE win probability
Iowa State 20% Underdog
Baylor 80% Favorite
Baylor is the model's favorite at 80%. Iowa State has a 20% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.3 rating points baked in for Baylor — venue-specific learned value (n=52 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Iowa State offense
Higher fit 39 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Baylor offense
37 / 100 Style-neutral matchup