Conference game
Arizona State at UCF
Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 12:00 AM EST
GIE win probability
Arizona State 34% Underdog
UCF 66% Favorite
UCF is the model's favorite at 66%. Arizona State has a 34% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.1 rating points baked in for UCF — venue-specific learned value (n=55 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Arizona State offense
33 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
UCF offense
33 / 100 Style-neutral matchup