2026 Week 12 · Conference game
Iowa State at UCF
Friday, November 20, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
FBC Mortgage Stadium
Iowa State
Big 12
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -0.4
- National rank
- 69
- Proj. wins
- 7.1
- Playoff prob.
- 1%
UCF
Big 12
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 1.7
- National rank
- 63
- Proj. wins
- 5.7
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Iowa State
28%
UCF
72%
UCF 90% CI: 64% – 79% Δ rating 2.1
UCF is the model's favorite at 72%. Iowa State has a 28% path. Home-field adjustment of +5.5 rating points baked in for UCF — venue-specific night-game value (n=56 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Iowa State offense
32 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
UCF offense
36 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, November 20, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- FBC Mortgage Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No