Conference game
North Carolina at Duke
Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 3:30 PM EDT
Final score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 North Carolina Winner | 10 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 24 |
 Duke | 0 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 20 |
GIE pre-game call: Duke at 63%. Miss
Pre-game
GIE win probability
North Carolina 37% Underdog
Duke 63% Favorite
Duke is the model's favorite at 63%. North Carolina has a 37% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.2 rating points baked in for Duke — venue-specific learned value (n=52 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Recaps
- North Carolina recap North Carolina: 2026 Week 7 recap North Carolina sits at 2–2 with a rating of 3, unchanged from last week despite the Week 5 home loss to Notre Dame (26–37). The Tar Heels' offensive efficiency remains a constraint—a red-zone TD rate of just 14 percent and third-down…
- Duke recap Duke: 2026 Week 7 recap Duke remains undefeated at 4-0, holding steady at No. 34 in GIE's ratings with a 10.2 score after last week's dominant 62-7 win over William & Mary. The Blue Devils haven't budged in the model's assessment, suggesting the victory—while…