2026 Week 7 · Conference game
North Carolina at Duke
Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
Wallace Wade Stadium
North Carolina
ACC
- Record
- 1-0
- Rating
- 3.5
- National rank
- 56
- Proj. wins
- 4.4
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Duke
ACC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 5.6
- National rank
- 44
- Proj. wins
- 6.2
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
North Carolina
41%
Duke
59%
Duke 90% CI: 50% – 67% Δ rating 2.1
Duke is the model's favorite at 59%. North Carolina has a 41% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.7 rating points baked in for Duke — venue-specific learned value (n=53 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
North Carolina offense
42 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Duke offense
34 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Wallace Wade Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No