Conference game

North Carolina at Virginia

Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 12:00 AM EST

GIE win probability

North Carolina 36% Underdog

Virginia 64% Favorite

Virginia 90% CI: 55–72%
Δ rating: Virginia +2.1

Virginia is the model's favorite at 64%. North Carolina has a 36% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.4 rating points baked in for Virginia — venue-specific learned value (n=53 games).

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Team comparison

North Carolina and Virginia compared
Measure	North Carolina ACC	Virginia ACC
Record	4-4	4-5
Rating	3.7	5.8
National rank	58	53
Proj. wins	5.9	5.4
Playoff prob.	0%	0%

Game info

Venue: Scott Stadium
Conference game: Yes
Neutral site: No

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

North Carolina offense Higher fit 34 / 100 Style-neutral matchup

Virginia offense 33 / 100 Style-neutral matchup