2026 Week 1
Ball State at Ohio State
Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 4:30 PM UTC
Ohio Stadium
Ball State
Mid-American
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -25.1
- National rank
- 133
- Proj. wins
- 2.9
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Ohio State
Big Ten
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 32.7
- National rank
- 1
- Proj. wins
- 9.1
- Playoff prob.
- 99%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Ball State
0%
Ohio State
100%
Ohio State 90% CI: 100% – 100% Δ rating 57.8
Ohio State is the model's favorite at 100%. Ball State has a 0% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.8 rating points baked in for Ohio State — venue-specific learned value (n=66 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Ball State offense
23 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Ohio State offense
40 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Overcast
Temperature
80°F
Precipitation
40%
Wind
5 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 4:30 PM UTC
- Venue
- Ohio Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No