2026 Week 4 · Conference game
Illinois at Ohio State
Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
Ohio Stadium
Illinois
Big Ten
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 10.4
- National rank
- 28
- Proj. wins
- 7.6
- Playoff prob.
- 4%
Ohio State
Big Ten
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 32.7
- National rank
- 1
- Proj. wins
- 9.1
- Playoff prob.
- 99%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Illinois
3%
Ohio State
97%
Ohio State 90% CI: 95% – 98% Δ rating 22.3
Ohio State is the model's favorite at 97%. Illinois has a 3% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.8 rating points baked in for Ohio State — venue-specific learned value (n=66 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Illinois offense
25 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Ohio State offense
33 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Ohio Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No