Conference game
Northwestern at Michigan State
Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 12:00 PM EDT
Final score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Northwestern Winner | 3 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 24 |
 Michigan State | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 21 |
GIE pre-game call: Northwestern at 87%. Hit
Pre-game
GIE win probability
Northwestern 87% Favorite
Michigan State 13% Underdog
Northwestern is the model's favorite at 87%. Michigan State has a 13% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.2 rating points baked in for Michigan State — venue-specific learned value (n=58 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Recaps
- Northwestern recap Northwestern: 2026 Week 7 recap Northwestern sits at No. 50 overall with a 3–1 record and a GIE rating of 7.3, unchanged from last week despite a dominant 34–13 home win over Penn State in Week 5. The Wildcats' red-zone efficiency remains a concern—they're converting…
- Michigan State recap Michigan State: 2026 Week 7 recap Michigan State sits at 2–3 with a rating of 0.3, anchored at 67th nationally. Last week's 31–3 road loss to Wisconsin crystallized the offensive struggles: a red-zone TD rate of 15% and third-down conversion rate of 37% underscore an…