Conference game
Michigan at Oregon
Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 12:00 AM EST
GIE win probability
Michigan 26% Underdog
Oregon 74% Favorite
Oregon is the model's favorite at 74%. Michigan has a 26% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.0 rating points baked in for Oregon — venue-specific learned value (n=54 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Michigan offense
27 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Oregon offense
Higher fit 32 / 100 Style-neutral matchup