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Conference game

Maryland at USC

Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 12:00 AM EST

GIE win probability

Maryland 8% Underdog
USC 92% Favorite
USC 90% CI
88–94%
Δ rating
USC +16.3

USC is the model's favorite at 92%. Maryland has a 8% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.0 rating points baked in for USC — venue-specific learned value (n=62 games).

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

Maryland offense Higher fit 41 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
USC offense 39 / 100 Style-neutral matchup