2026 Week 2 · Conference game
South Florida at Army
Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC
Michie Stadium
South Florida
American Athletic
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -1.7
- National rank
- 74
- Proj. wins
- 8.9
- Playoff prob.
- 9%
Army
American Athletic
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -2.4
- National rank
- 81
- Proj. wins
- 6.2
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
South Florida
49%
Army
51%
Army 90% CI: 42% – 60% Δ rating 0.7
Army is the model's favorite at 51%. South Florida has a 49% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.0 rating points baked in for Army — venue-specific learned value (n=43 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
South Florida offense
36 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Army offense
25 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Overcast
Temperature
70°F
Precipitation
9%
Wind
1 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Michie Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No