Conference game
East Carolina at Army
Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 12:00 PM EST
GIE win probability
East Carolina 30% Underdog
Army 70% Favorite
Army is the model's favorite at 70%. East Carolina has a 30% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.7 rating points baked in for Army — venue-specific learned value (n=43 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
East Carolina offense
Higher fit 35 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Army offense
24 / 100 Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup