2026 Week 3
North Dakota State at Sacramento State
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · 2:30 AM UTC
Hornet Stadium
North Dakota State
Mountain West
- Record
- 1-0
- Rating
- -1.8
- National rank
- 75
- Proj. wins
- 8.0
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Sacramento State
Mid-American
- Record
- 0-1
- Rating
- -23.4
- National rank
- 131
- Proj. wins
- 7.0
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
North Dakota State
92%
Sacramento State
8%
Sacramento State 90% CI: 6% – 12% Δ rating 21.6
North Dakota State is the model's favorite at 92%. Sacramento State has a 8% path. League-prior home-field adjustment of +2.5 rating points baked in for Sacramento State.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
North Dakota State offense
35 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Sacramento State offense
21 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Sunday, September 20, 2026 · 2:30 AM UTC
- Venue
- Hornet Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No