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2026 Week 8 · Conference game

North Dakota State at New Mexico

Sunday, October 25, 2026 · 2:00 AM UTC

University Stadium (NM)

North Dakota State
Mountain West
Record
1-0
Rating
-1.8
National rank
75
Proj. wins
8.0
Playoff prob.
0%
New Mexico
Mountain West
Record
0-0
Rating
0.0
National rank
68
Proj. wins
7.4
Playoff prob.
0%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

North Dakota State
38%
New Mexico
62%
New Mexico 90% CI: 53% – 71% Δ rating 1.8

New Mexico is the model's favorite at 62%. North Dakota State has a 38% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.2 rating points baked in for New Mexico — venue-specific learned value (n=48 games).

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

North Dakota State offense
30 / 100

Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup

New Mexico offense
25 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.

Game info

Kickoff
Sunday, October 25, 2026 · 2:00 AM UTC
Venue
University Stadium (NM)
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No
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