Conference game
North Dakota State at Hawai'i
Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 11:00 PM EST
GIE win probability
North Dakota State 86% Favorite
Hawai'i 14% Underdog
North Dakota State is the model's favorite at 86%. Hawai'i has a 14% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.9 rating points baked in for Hawai'i — venue-specific learned value (n=30 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
North Dakota State offense
Higher fit 35 / 100 Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Hawai'i offense
29 / 100 Style-neutral matchup