2026 Week 12 · Conference game
Northern Illinois at North Dakota State
Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 9:00 PM UTC
Fargodome
Northern Illinois
Mountain West
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -17.2
- National rank
- 123
- Proj. wins
- 3.7
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
North Dakota State
Mountain West
- Record
- 1-0
- Rating
- -1.8
- National rank
- 75
- Proj. wins
- 8.0
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Northern Illinois
10%
North Dakota State
90%
North Dakota State 90% CI: 87% – 93% Δ rating 15.4
North Dakota State is the model's favorite at 90%. Northern Illinois has a 10% path. League-prior home-field adjustment of +2.5 rating points baked in for North Dakota State.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Northern Illinois offense
23 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
North Dakota State offense
34 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 9:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Fargodome
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No