Conference game
Northern Illinois at North Dakota State
Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 4:00 PM EST
GIE win probability
Northern Illinois 1% Underdog
North Dakota State 99% Favorite
North Dakota State is the model's favorite at 99%. Northern Illinois has a 1% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.4 rating points baked in for North Dakota State — venue-specific learned value (n=4 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Northern Illinois offense
23 / 100 Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
North Dakota State offense
Higher fit 34 / 100 Style-neutral matchup