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Conference game

Air Force at New Mexico

Saturday, November 28, 2026 · 4:30 PM EST

GIE win probability

Air Force 18% Underdog
New Mexico 82% Favorite
New Mexico 90% CI
76–87%
Δ rating
New Mexico +10.1

New Mexico is the model's favorite at 82%. Air Force has a 18% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.2 rating points baked in for New Mexico — venue-specific learned value (n=46 games).

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

Air Force offense 24 / 100 Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
New Mexico offense Higher fit 48 / 100 Style-neutral matchup