Conference game
Buffalo at Ball State
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · 12:00 AM EST
GIE win probability
Buffalo 63% Favorite
Ball State 37% Underdog
Buffalo is the model's favorite at 63%. Ball State has a 37% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.8 rating points baked in for Ball State — venue-specific learned value (n=42 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Buffalo offense
Higher fit 41 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Ball State offense
33 / 100 Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup