Conference game
Sacramento State at Central Michigan
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · 7:30 PM EST
GIE win probability
Sacramento State 12% Underdog
Central Michigan 88% Favorite
Central Michigan is the model's favorite at 88%. Sacramento State has a 12% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.8 rating points baked in for Central Michigan — venue-specific learned value (n=44 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Sacramento State offense
33 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Central Michigan offense
Higher fit 34 / 100 Style-neutral matchup