Conference game
Central Michigan at Buffalo
Wednesday, November 18, 2026 · 12:00 AM EST
GIE win probability
Central Michigan 25% Underdog
Buffalo 75% Favorite
Buffalo is the model's favorite at 75%. Central Michigan has a 25% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.1 rating points baked in for Buffalo — venue-specific learned value (n=46 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Central Michigan offense
32 / 100 Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Buffalo offense
Higher fit 38 / 100 Style-neutral matchup