Conference game
Central Michigan at Ball State
Saturday, November 28, 2026 · 12:00 PM EST
GIE win probability
Central Michigan 49% Underdog
Ball State 51% Favorite
Ball State is the model's favorite at 51%. Central Michigan has a 49% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.8 rating points baked in for Ball State — venue-specific learned value (n=42 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Central Michigan offense
Higher fit 38 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Ball State offense
35 / 100 Style-neutral matchup