Conference game
Arkansas State at Louisiana Tech
Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 12:00 AM EST
GIE win probability
Arkansas State 29% Underdog
Louisiana Tech 71% Favorite
Louisiana Tech is the model's favorite at 71%. Arkansas State has a 29% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.9 rating points baked in for Louisiana Tech — venue-specific learned value (n=45 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Arkansas State offense
37 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Louisiana Tech offense
37 / 100 Style-neutral matchup