Conference game
Troy at Arkansas State
Saturday, November 28, 2026 · 3:00 PM EST
GIE win probability
Troy 36% Underdog
Arkansas State 64% Favorite
Arkansas State is the model's favorite at 64%. Troy has a 36% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.9 rating points baked in for Arkansas State — venue-specific learned value (n=45 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Troy offense
39 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Arkansas State offense
Higher fit 41 / 100 Style-neutral matchup