2026 Week 1
Sam Houston at Troy
Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Sam Houston
Conference USA
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -26.0
- National rank
- 134
- Proj. wins
- 2.3
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Troy
Sun Belt
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -8.0
- National rank
- 97
- Proj. wins
- 6.3
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Sam Houston
13%
Troy
87%
Troy 90% CI: 83% – 91% Δ rating 18.0
Troy is the model's favorite at 87%. Sam Houston has a 13% path. Home-field adjustment of +-2.4 rating points baked in for Troy — venue-specific night-game value (n=50 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Sam Houston offense
41 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Troy offense
45 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Overcast
Temperature
76°F
Precipitation
9%
Wind
5 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No