2026 Week 6 · Conference game
Missouri State at Western Kentucky
Thursday, October 8, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Missouri State
Conference USA
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -19.1
- National rank
- 126
- Proj. wins
- 5.0
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Western Kentucky
Conference USA
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -7.3
- National rank
- 94
- Proj. wins
- 7.5
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Missouri State
19%
Western Kentucky
81%
Western Kentucky 90% CI: 75% – 86% Δ rating 11.8
Western Kentucky is the model's favorite at 81%. Missouri State has a 19% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.0 rating points baked in for Western Kentucky — venue-specific night-game value (n=49 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Missouri State offense
37 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Western Kentucky offense
42 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Thursday, October 8, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No