Conference game
Middle Tennessee at Liberty
Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 3:30 PM EST
GIE win probability
Middle Tennessee 5% Underdog
Liberty 95% Favorite
Liberty is the model's favorite at 95%. Middle Tennessee has a 5% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.6 rating points baked in for Liberty — venue-specific learned value (n=43 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Middle Tennessee offense
Higher fit 40 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Liberty offense
38 / 100 Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup