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Bowling Green

Falcons · Mid-American

GIE rank
#125
of 138 FBS
Rating
1380
2026 Week 11
Record
2-7
2026 season
Proj record
3-9
12-game season

Head coach Eddie George Year 2 with Bowling Green

Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation

Season projection

2026 W11 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
3.3
1.3 more wins in 3 left
Win range (90%)
2 to 4
Final rank (90%)
#121 (112–130)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
0%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Bowling Green's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 5 vs Tarleton State Non-FBS Loss, 13-20 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12 at Nebraska Big Ten Loss, 7-56 Final
Wk 3 Sep 19 at Iowa State Big 12 Loss, 7-55 Final
Wk 4 Sep 26 vs South Florida American Athletic Loss, 6-14 Final
Wk 5 Oct 3 at Miami (OH) Mid-American Win, 24-20 Final
Wk 6 Oct 10 vs Sacramento State Mid-American Win, 38-10 Final
Wk 7 Oct 17 vs Ball State Mid-American Loss, 31-32 Final
Wk 8 Oct 24 at Buffalo Mid-American Loss, 24-31 Final
Wk 9 Oct 31 at Western Michigan Mid-American Loss, 10-23 Final
Wk 10 Bye
Wk 11 Nov 11 vs Kent State Mid-American Win probability: 67%
Wk 12 Nov 21 at Toledo Mid-American Win probability: 6%
Wk 13 Nov 28 vs Massachusetts Mid-American Win probability: 36%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    Bowling Green: 2026 Week 11 recap

    Bowling Green sits at 2–7 after dropping a road game to Western Michigan 23–10 in Week 9, holding steady at a rating of −18.2 and ranked 130th. The Falcons' offensive struggles remain the defining feature: a third-down conversion rate of…

  • Recap

    Bowling Green: 2026 Week 7 recap

    Bowling Green sits at 1–4 after a Week 5 road win over Miami (OH), 24–20, but the rating holds steady at –26.4, suggesting the victory didn't shift the broader assessment. The Falcons' situational profile is the real story: a red-zone TD…

  • Recap

    Bowling Green: 2026 Week 3 recap

    Bowling Green sits at 0–1 after falling to Tarleton State 20–13 in Week 1, and the rating hasn't budged since. GIE has them at 118th overall with an expected-wins projection of 3.9, reflecting a roster unlikely to string together many…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

If QB1 is out

Drew Pyne

GIE projects a 4.3 rating drop and a 17.0pp shift in playoff probability if Bowling Green loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=6 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Returning production · 2026

34 score

  • Quarterback 26% (2/5)
  • Offensive line 60% (9/15) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 22% (13/31)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 35% (14/28)
  • Secondary 46% (9/21)
  • Special teams 0% (4/8)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

−0.9 rating

17 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Bowling Green incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Isaiah DawsonWR From Richmond Richmond 65
Armahn HaleDB From New Mexico State New Mexico State 64
Ke'Marion BaldwinRB From Charleston Southern Charleston Southern 57
Nick SowellWR From South Carolina State South Carolina State 23
Sanders EllisLB From Purdue Purdue 14
Nick SawyerCB From Charleston Southern Charleston Southern 14

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 34.7%
    35th — below avg
  • Red-zone TD rate 12.3%
    28th — below avg
  • 4th-down aggression 31.0%
    25th — below avg
  • Late & close 4.0 yds/play
    22th — bottom tier

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.