Western Michigan
Broncos · Mid-American
Year-4 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.65 W vs. preseason expectation
Season Projection · 2026 W2
10,000 simsPath to Glory
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
0%
Baseline projection.
- vs MonmouthHome · Sep 12
- vs MonmouthHome · Sep 12
- vs MonmouthHome · Sep 12
- vs MonmouthHome · Sep 12
-
at RiceAway · Sep 19
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Returning production · 2026
- Quarterback 95% (5/6 )
- Offensive line 100% (18/18 players)
- Skill (RB/WR/TE) 99% (26/28 )
- Front 7 (DL/LB) 66% (26/29 )
- Secondary 100% (16/18 )
- Special teams 100% (5/6 )
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
Portal additions · 2026
21 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
- Nate Levicki TE ← Presbyterian 97 impact
- DeJuan Echoles Jr. DE ← Ball State 90 impact
- Zavian Tibbs DT ← Houston 10 impact
- Kouri Crump S ← VMI 8 impact
- Willard Ferrell CB ← Presbyterian 8 impact
- Scoop Gardner Jr. DE ← Long Island University 8 impact
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Situational efficiency · 2025
FBS percentile rank- 3rd-down conversion 38.1% 59th — average
- Red-zone TD rate 14.0% 41th — below avg
- 4th-down aggression 44.1% 83th — strong
- Late & close 5.0 yds/play 46th — average
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Schedule
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
- Wk 1Sep 5
atMichiganBig Ten4%Win prob - Wk 2Sep 12vsMonmouth—
- Wk 3Sep 19
atRiceAmerican Athletic70%Win prob - Wk 4Sep 26
vsBoise StatePac-1225%Win prob - Wk 5Oct 3
atBuffaloMid-American63%Win prob - Wk 6Oct 10
vsKent StateMid-American91%Win prob - Wk 7Oct 17
atCentral MichiganMid-American70%Win prob - Wk 8Oct 24
atToledoMid-American52%Win prob - Wk 9Oct 31
vsBowling GreenMid-American81%Win prob - Wk 11Nov 11
atAkronMid-American86%Win prob - Wk 12Nov 18
vsEastern MichiganMid-American83%Win prob - Wk 13Nov 24
vsMiami (OH)Mid-American52%Win prob
Latest Stories
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Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.