Boise State: 2026 Week 11 recap

Boise State sits at 7–1 and holds a 29th ranking despite flat momentum: the rating stayed at 10.9 this week following a narrow 46–45 home win over Texas State in Week 9. The razor-thin margin exposed a real vulnerability—red-zone efficiency at 16% has been a drag when games tighten late. That said, GIE still projects them to win the Pac-12 conference with 99.6% confidence and make the playoff at 93.5%, suggesting the resume is strong enough to weather close calls. Next up is a road matchup against Colorado State, a test that could either reinforce their legitimacy or expose whether late-game execution remains a concern heading into November's back half.