Idaho: 2026 Week 11 recap

Idaho sits at 4–5 after a dominant road win over Portland State (38–14) in Week 9, but GIE's projections offer little encouragement: the model pegs expected wins at 5.7 and assigns zero playoff probability. The Vandals' red-zone efficiency (14% TD rate) has been a chronic drag on scoring potential, while their third-down conversion rate of 40% reflects offensive inconsistency. With a home matchup against Eastern Washington coming up this week, Idaho needs a strong finish to salvage the season, but the gap between their win total and expected wins suggests their recent performance has outpaced their underlying strength.