Memphis: 2026 Week 11 recap

Memphis sits at 7–2 after a dominant 49–22 win over Army in Week 9, holding a rating of 7 and ranking 46th per GIE. The Tigers haven't budged in the model's assessment—their rating stayed flat week-over-week—suggesting that dominance against a Group of Five opponent didn't shift the needle on their overall profile. A red-zone TD rate of 22% hints at execution issues in the most critical moments, though their late-game leverage performance (5.63) shows they're closing out wins when it counts. With a playoff probability of zero and only an 8.3% shot at a conference title, Memphis faces a critical road test at South Florida this Friday. The margin between tournament contention and a solid regular season is razor-thin from here.