Nevada: 2026 Week 11 recap

Nevada sits at No. 89 in GIE's ratings with a 3–5 record, and last week's 27–0 loss to UCLA underscored how far the Wolf Pack have slipped. The shutout wasn't an outlier—it crystallized deeper offensive issues: a redzone touchdown rate of 12% and third-down conversion rate of 30% tell you Nevada is consistently stalling in moments that matter. The model projects 5.1 expected wins for the season and has Nevada at zero probability of conference or playoff contention. This week brings New Mexico to Reno, a chance to reset, but GIE's rating hasn't budged—suggesting the model sees structural problems rather than week-to-week noise.