Sacramento State: 2026 Week 11 recap

Sacramento State sits at 2–7 after a convincing 31–10 home win over Kent State in Week 9, but the victory hasn't budged their rating or standing: they remain at 138th nationally with a minus-29.1 mark. The Hornets' offensive efficiency tells the real story—a red-zone TD rate of just 24% means they're leaving points on the field even in winnable spots, and a third-down conversion rate of 37% limits their ability to sustain drives. GIE projects them for 3.2 expected wins on the season and gives them zero probability of postseason play. Toledo comes to town this week as Sacramento State hunts for consecutive victories, but the math suggests structural issues run deeper than any single game can fix.