Toledo
Rockets · Mid-American
- GIE rank
- #38
- of 138 FBS
- Rating
- 1640
- 2026 Week 11
- Record
- 6-2
- 2026 season
- Proj record
- 9-3
- 12-game season
Head coach Mike Jacobs Year 1 with Toledo
Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs. preseason expectation
Season projection
- Expected wins
- 8.9
- 2.9 more wins in 4 left
- Win range (90%)
- 7 to 10
- Final rank (90%)
- #37 (25–53)
- Make playoff
- 0%
- Win conference
- 60%
Path to glory
No remaining game changes Toledo's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%
Schedule
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
| Week | Opponent | Result or win prob.Result or win probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 Sep 5 | at Michigan State Big Ten | Loss, 20-30 Final |
| Wk 2 Sep 12 | vs Central Connecticut Non-FBS | Win, 63-10 Final |
| Wk 3 Sep 19 | vs Temple American Athletic | Win, 49-48 Final |
| Wk 4 Sep 26 | vs San Diego State Pac-12 | Win, 41-16 Final |
| Wk 5 Oct 3 | at Ball State Mid-American | Win, 39-24 Final |
| Wk 6 Oct 10 | vs Buffalo Mid-American | Loss, 8-23 Final |
| Wk 7 Oct 17 | at Eastern Michigan Mid-American | Win, 34-14 Final |
| Wk 8 Oct 24 | vs Western Michigan Mid-American | Win, 45-38 Final |
| Wk 9 | Bye | |
| Wk 10 Nov 5 | at Sacramento State Mid-American | |
| Wk 11 Nov 11 | vs Massachusetts Mid-American | |
| Wk 12 Nov 21 | vs Bowling Green Mid-American | |
| Wk 13 Nov 27 | at Ohio Mid-American | |
In the news
- How to watch Buffalo vs Toledo: Live stream NCAA College Football, TV channel (opens in a new tab)
- UConn football to get defensive reinforcement after NCAA reverses eligibility decision (opens in a new tab) Connecticut (GIE shift +8.0): Esean Carter's eligibility restoration adds experienced depth to UConn's defensive line ahead of Maryland matchup. Carter brings five seasons of FBS snaps from Toledo, providing immediate rotation at nose tackle. The reinforcement addresses interior defensive line depth concerns and enables scheme flexibility. Timing before first Power Conference contest allows limited integration reps. Impact magnitude depends on Carter's conditioning level and installation pace with defensive staff. Toledo (GIE shift -8.0): Toledo loses depth on the defensive line as Esean Carter, a five-year nose tackle, departs via transfer to UConn following NCAA eligibility resolution. Carter's departure reduces interior defensive line experience and veteran presence. Toledo must redistribute assignments among remaining defensive tackles and potentially accelerate development of younger personnel in the trenches to maintain defensive line stability and run-stopping effectiveness.
- UConn football news: Huskies name ex-Toledo QB as starter vs. Lafayette (opens in a new tab) Connecticut (GIE shift +8.0): Kalieb Osborne's designation as starting QB represents continuity in UConn's offensive personnel following the head coach transition from Mora to Candle. Osborne's prior experience in Candle's Toledo system provides scheme familiarity and reduces transition risk. However, quarterback performance remains dependent on offensive line stability, receiver development, and execution consistency. The Lafayette opener will establish baseline offensive efficiency under new coaching. Toledo (GIE shift +0.0): This news concerns UConn's quarterback decision and coaching staff, not Toledo's roster or scheme. Jason Candle's departure to UConn as head coach represents a loss of institutional knowledge and recruiting relationships built over 11 seasons, but the on-field impact depends on Toledo's new head coach hire and offensive coordinator continuity. Personnel decisions at competing programs do not directly alter Toledo's depth chart or tactical capabilities.
- Michigan State football vs. Toledo live updates: Score, highlights (opens in a new tab)
- Michigan State vs. Toledo college football betting: Odds, picks, predictions, kickoff time for Week 1 matchup (opens in a new tab)
- How to watch Toledo vs Michigan State: Live stream College Football, NCAA, TV channel (opens in a new tab)
More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
If QB1 is out
GIE projects a -4.0 rating drop and a -16.1pp shift in playoff probability if Toledo loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Returning production · 2026
58 score
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
Portal additions · 2026
−0.1 rating
35 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
| Player | From | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| CJ MillerRB From Mercer | Mercer | 88 |
| Adjatay DabbsWR From Mercer | Mercer | 79 |
| Armorion SmithS From Michigan State | Michigan State | 67 |
| Rico BondWR From Lindenwood | Lindenwood | 63 |
| Kalvin Gilbert Jr.WR From Southeast Missouri State | Southeast Missouri State | 60 |
| Ezra OdinjorDE From UAB | UAB | 57 |
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Situational efficiency · 2025
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.