Conference game
Toledo at Ohio
Friday, November 27, 2026 · 12:00 PM EST
GIE win probability
Toledo 52% Favorite
Ohio 48% Underdog
Toledo is the model's favorite at 52%. Ohio has a 48% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.7 rating points baked in for Ohio — venue-specific learned value (n=45 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Toledo offense
Higher fit 40 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Ohio offense
23 / 100 Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup