Conference game
Toledo at Sacramento State
Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 7:00 PM EST
GIE win probability
Toledo 97% Favorite
Sacramento State 3% Underdog
Toledo is the model's favorite at 97%. Sacramento State has a 3% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.5 rating points baked in for Sacramento State — venue-specific learned value (n=4 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Toledo offense
Higher fit 37 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Sacramento State offense
19 / 100 Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup