2026 Week 10 · Conference game
Toledo at Sacramento State
Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 5:00 AM UTC
Hornet Stadium
Toledo
Mid-American
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -9.1
- National rank
- 99
- Proj. wins
- 8.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Sacramento State
Mid-American
- Record
- 0-1
- Rating
- -23.4
- National rank
- 131
- Proj. wins
- 7.0
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Toledo
81%
Sacramento State
19%
Sacramento State 90% CI: 14% – 25% Δ rating 14.3
Toledo is the model's favorite at 81%. Sacramento State has a 19% path. League-prior home-field adjustment of +2.5 rating points baked in for Sacramento State.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Toledo offense
37 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Sacramento State offense
19 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 5:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Hornet Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No