2026 Week 1
Toledo at Michigan State
Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Spartan Stadium
Toledo
Mid-American
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -9.1
- National rank
- 99
- Proj. wins
- 8.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Michigan State
Big Ten
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 2.2
- National rank
- 62
- Proj. wins
- 4.2
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Toledo
19%
Michigan State
81%
Michigan State 90% CI: 75% – 86% Δ rating 11.3
Michigan State is the model's favorite at 81%. Toledo has a 19% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.4 rating points baked in for Michigan State — venue-specific learned value (n=59 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Toledo offense
40 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Michigan State offense
27 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Partly cloudy
Temperature
70°F
Precipitation
18%
Wind
5 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Spartan Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No