Toledo at Michigan State
Friday, September 4, 2026 · 8:00 PM EDT
Final score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Toledo | 0 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 20 |
 Michigan State Winner | 10 | 9 | 0 | 11 | 30 |
GIE pre-game call: Michigan State at 51%. Hit
Pre-game
GIE win probability
Toledo 49% Underdog
Michigan State 51% Favorite
Michigan State is the model's favorite at 51%. Toledo has a 49% path. Home-field adjustment of +5.3 rating points baked in for Michigan State — venue-specific night-game value (n=58 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.