2026 Week 6 · Conference game
Buffalo at Toledo
Saturday, October 10, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
Glass Bowl
Buffalo
Mid-American
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -12.7
- National rank
- 111
- Proj. wins
- 5.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Toledo
Mid-American
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -9.1
- National rank
- 99
- Proj. wins
- 8.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Buffalo
35%
Toledo
65%
Toledo 90% CI: 56% – 73% Δ rating 3.6
Toledo is the model's favorite at 65%. Buffalo has a 35% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.5 rating points baked in for Toledo — venue-specific learned value (n=49 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Buffalo offense
28 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Toledo offense
35 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 10, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Glass Bowl
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No