2026 Week 2
Iowa State at Iowa
Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 11:30 PM UTC
Kinnick Stadium
Iowa State
Big 12
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -0.4
- National rank
- 69
- Proj. wins
- 7.1
- Playoff prob.
- 1%
Iowa
Big Ten
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 14.6
- National rank
- 22
- Proj. wins
- 8.5
- Playoff prob.
- 44%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Iowa State
10%
Iowa
90%
Iowa 90% CI: 86% – 93% Δ rating 15.0
Iowa is the model's favorite at 90%. Iowa State has a 10% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.7 rating points baked in for Iowa — venue-specific learned value (n=62 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Iowa State offense
32 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Iowa offense
33 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Overcast
Temperature
80°F
Precipitation
18%
Wind
10 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 11:30 PM UTC
- Venue
- Kinnick Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No