Hawkeyes · Big Ten
Head coach Kirk Ferentz
Their playoff probability after a win or a loss in each pivotal game. (Interactive toggles coming once the scenario sim finishes for this team.)
| Game | Win | Loss | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| at Illinois | 61% | 0% | +61pp |
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
| Week | Opponent | Result or win prob.Result or win probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 Sep 5 | vs Northern Illinois Mountain West | Win, 40-0 Final |
| Wk 2 Sep 12 | vs Iowa State Big 12 | Win, 16-13 Final |
| Wk 3 Sep 19 | vs Northern Iowa Non-FBS | Win, 55-0 Final |
| Wk 4 Sep 26 | at Michigan Big Ten | Win, 20-19 Final |
| Wk 5 Oct 3 | vs Ohio State Big Ten | Loss, 14-31 Final |
| Wk 6 Oct 10 | at Washington Big Ten | Win, 41-24 Final |
| Wk 7 | Bye | |
| Wk 8 Oct 24 | at Minnesota Big Ten | Loss, 10-13 Final |
| Wk 9 Oct 31 | vs Wisconsin Big Ten | Win, 30-0 Final |
| Wk 10 Nov 8 | at Northwestern Big Ten | |
| Wk 11 Nov 14 | vs Purdue Big Ten | |
| Wk 12 Nov 21 | at Illinois Big Ten | |
| Wk 13 Nov 27 | vs Nebraska Big Ten | |
More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
37 score
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
−0.5 rating
14 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
| Player | From | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| L.J. Phillips Jr.RB From South Dakota | South Dakota | 142 |
| Tyler BrownDB From James Madison | James Madison | 140 |
| Evan JamesWR From Furman | Furman | 79 |
| Lance IngoldDL From Northern Illinois | Northern Illinois | 46 |
| Anthony HawkinsDB From Villanova | Villanova | 29 |
| Xavier StylesDB From Robert Morris | Robert Morris | 11 |
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
