2026 Week 3
Arkansas State at TCU
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Amon G. Carter Stadium
Arkansas State
Sun Belt
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -11.6
- National rank
- 105
- Proj. wins
- 5.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
TCU
Big 12
- Record
- 0-1
- Rating
- 9.4
- National rank
- 32
- Proj. wins
- 5.6
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Arkansas State
5%
TCU
95%
TCU 90% CI: 93% – 97% Δ rating 21.0
TCU is the model's favorite at 95%. Arkansas State has a 5% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.7 rating points baked in for TCU — venue-specific learned value (n=54 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Arkansas State offense
36 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
TCU offense
40 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Sunday, September 20, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Amon G. Carter Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No