Horned Frogs · Big 12
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
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Baseline projection.
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
12 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
GIE projects a 0.0 rating drop and a 0.0pp shift in playoff probability if TCU loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
TCU shed 31 ELO points in one week. That's not a bad loss—that's a structural problem. A 15-10 home defeat to North Carolina doesn't just cost you a game; it costs you the margin for error the rest of the season. They're now projected for…
TCU lost 31 rating points in a single week, a swing that wiped out months of incremental gains and repositioned the program squarely in the middle tier of college football. The Horned Frogs' current rating of 1573 now sits below their…
TCU dropped 31 ELO points on a home loss to North Carolina. That's a program in freefall—not because one game, but because the model now pegs them for 5.6 wins. The Frogs are no longer a Power Four threat. They're a bowl-game question mark.
TCU's Elo rating dropped 31 points following a 15-10 loss to North Carolina in Week 1, a decline that reflects both the result itself and the underlying performance that produced it.
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
