2026 Week 7 · Conference game
TCU at Baylor
Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
McLane Stadium
TCU
Big 12
- Record
- 0-1
- Rating
- 9.4
- National rank
- 32
- Proj. wins
- 5.6
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Baylor
Big 12
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 3.8
- National rank
- 53
- Proj. wins
- 5.2
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
TCU
64%
Baylor
36%
Baylor 90% CI: 28% – 45% Δ rating 5.6
TCU is the model's favorite at 64%. Baylor has a 36% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.9 rating points baked in for Baylor — venue-specific learned value (n=54 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
TCU offense
40 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Baylor offense
37 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- McLane Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No