2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Cincinnati at Arizona
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
Arizona Stadium
Cincinnati
Big 12
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 3.0
- National rank
- 59
- Proj. wins
- 5.7
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Arizona
Big 12
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 9.5
- National rank
- 31
- Proj. wins
- 7.2
- Playoff prob.
- 3%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Cincinnati
22%
Arizona
78%
Arizona 90% CI: 71% – 84% Δ rating 6.5
Arizona is the model's favorite at 78%. Cincinnati has a 22% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.8 rating points baked in for Arizona — venue-specific learned value (n=53 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Cincinnati offense
31 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Arizona offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Arizona Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No