2026 Week 1 · Conference game
SMU at Florida State
Monday, September 7, 2026 · 11:30 PM UTC
Doak Campbell Stadium
SMU
ACC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 12.1
- National rank
- 25
- Proj. wins
- 8.4
- Playoff prob.
- 12%
Florida State
ACC
- Record
- 1-0
- Rating
- 9.1
- National rank
- 35
- Proj. wins
- 6.4
- Playoff prob.
- 1%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
SMU
51%
Florida State
49%
Florida State 90% CI: 40% – 58% Δ rating 3.0
SMU is the model's favorite at 51%. Florida State has a 49% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.6 rating points baked in for Florida State — venue-specific learned value (n=55 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
SMU offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Florida State offense
30 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Overcast
Temperature
77°F
Precipitation
27%
Wind
7 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Monday, September 7, 2026 · 11:30 PM UTC
- Venue
- Doak Campbell Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No