Conference game
SMU at Florida State
Monday, September 7, 2026 · 7:30 PM EDT
Final score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 SMU Winner | 7 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 27 |
 Florida State | 7 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 24 |
GIE pre-game call: SMU at 61%. Hit
Pre-game
GIE win probability
SMU 61% Favorite
Florida State 39% Underdog
SMU is the model's favorite at 61%. Florida State has a 39% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.1 rating points baked in for Florida State — venue-specific night-game value (n=54 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Recaps
- SMU recap SMU: 2026 Week 11 recap SMU sits at 21st overall with a 6–2 record, though last week's loss to Syracuse—27–30 on the road in Week 9—left the rating flat at 13.4. The Mustangs' red-zone efficiency tells much of the story: a 21% touchdown rate in the scoring area…
- Florida State recap Florida State: 2026 Week 11 recap Florida State sits at 3–5 with a rating of 5.8, holding rank 53 after a flat week. The Seminoles' most recent outing—a 36–24 home loss to Clemson in Week 9—exposed familiar weaknesses: a red-zone touchdown rate of just 20% and third-down…