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SMU

Mustangs · ACC

GIE rank
#40
of 138 FBS
Rating
1635
2026 Week 11
Record
6-2
2026 season
Proj record
8-4
12-game season

Head coach Rhett Lashlee Year 5 with SMU

Season projection

2026 W11 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
7.9
1.9 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%)
6 to 10
Final rank (90%)
#42 (25–60)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
0%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes SMU's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 7 at Florida State ACC Win, 27-24 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12 vs UC Davis Non-FBS Win, 56-10 Final
Wk 3 Sep 19 at Louisville ACC Loss, 31-41 Final
Wk 4 Sep 27 vs Missouri State Conference USA Win, 34-24 Final
Wk 5 Oct 3 vs Boston College ACC Win, 25-16 Final
Wk 6 Bye
Wk 7 Oct 17 vs Virginia ACC Win, 23-13 Final
Wk 8 Oct 24 vs California ACC Win, 59-20 Final
Wk 9 Oct 31 at Syracuse ACC Loss, 27-30 Final
Wk 10 Nov 7 vs Virginia Tech ACC Win probability: 70%
Wk 11 Nov 14 vs Wake Forest ACC Win probability: 61%
Wk 12 Nov 22 at Notre Dame FBS Independents Win probability: 14%
Wk 13 Nov 28 at Stanford ACC Win probability: 94%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    SMU: 2026 Week 11 recap

    SMU sits at 21st overall with a 6–2 record, though last week's loss to Syracuse—27–30 on the road in Week 9—left the rating flat at 13.4. The Mustangs' red-zone efficiency tells much of the story: a 21% touchdown rate in the scoring area…

  • Recap

    SMU: 2026 Week 7 recap

    SMU sits at 26th in the ratings after a steady 4–1 start, but last week's 25–16 win over Boston College didn't move the needle—GIE holds the Mustangs flat at a rating of 13. The red-zone efficiency tells part of the story: converting just…

  • Recap

    SMU: 2026 Week 3 recap

    SMU sits at No. 25 with a rating of 12.1 heading into Week 1 play, which means the Mustangs' schedule hasn't yet begun. GIE projects them for 8.4 expected wins and gives them an 11% shot at the playoff and a 12% chance to win the…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

Returning production · 2026

65 score

  • Quarterback 100% (3/4)
  • Offensive line 65% (13/20) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 28% (12/34)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 36% (13/30)
  • Secondary 69% (15/21)
  • Special teams 83% (2/8)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

+1.2 rating

18 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

SMU incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Jarvis LeeS From South Florida South Florida 231
Kendrick RaphaelRB From California California 167
Marques WhiteDE From Massachusetts Massachusetts 165
Jimmy WyrickS From UTSA UTSA 122
Yannick SmithWR From East Carolina East Carolina 106
Randy Pittman Jr.TE From Florida State Florida State 98

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 37.2%
    52th — average
  • Red-zone TD rate 21.3%
    91th — elite
  • 4th-down aggression 29.9%
    21th — bottom tier
  • Late & close 8.2 yds/play
    96th — elite

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.