SMU at Notre Dame
Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 7:30 PM EST
GIE win probability
SMU 10% Underdog
Notre Dame 90% Favorite
Notre Dame is the model's favorite at 90%. SMU has a 10% path. Home-field adjustment of +5.6 rating points baked in for Notre Dame — venue-specific night-game value (n=61 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
SMU offense
Higher fit 33 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Notre Dame offense
31 / 100 Style-neutral matchup