Conference game
SMU at Louisville
Saturday, September 19, 2026 · 3:30 PM EDT
Final score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 SMU | 7 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
 Louisville Winner | 14 | 0 | 14 | 13 | 41 |
GIE pre-game call: Louisville at 59%. Hit
Pre-game
GIE win probability
SMU 41% Underdog
Louisville 59% Favorite
Louisville is the model's favorite at 59%. SMU has a 41% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.1 rating points baked in for Louisville — venue-specific learned value (n=56 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Recaps
- SMU recap SMU: 2026 Week 3 recap SMU sits at No. 25 with a rating of 12.1 heading into Week 1 play, which means the Mustangs' schedule hasn't yet begun. GIE projects them for 8.4 expected wins and gives them an 11% shot at the playoff and a 12% chance to win the…
- Louisville recap Louisville: 2026 Week 3 recap Louisville remains ranked 27th with a 11.1 rating after dropping their Week 1 opener to Ole Miss, 41–38. That loss stings partly because the Cards converted just 15% of red-zone trips into touchdowns—efficiency that tight would've changed…